So, once the Brits managed to prevent Scotland from departing their own happy Union (barely!), their confidence boosted by such success has led them to the next logical step – taking the UK and swimming away from the EU. You’d think they would have learned from the Scots, where business and economics (staying in UK) won with national patriotism (departure and creating an Arab-styled oil state with its own currency and immediate large international debt).
The UK right wingers have managed to introduce the notion of departing the EU, and many observers across the continent are paying serious attention to the idea. Brexit is now on everyone’s mind as if it was a rational choice (it is not!!), seeing that:
– EU migrants are economically contributing to UKs pathetic economic growth as employees;
– EU migrants are starting new businesses in UK;
– UK companies have become integrated into the EUs economic system and are dependent on un-tariffed exchange (look at the trucking industry having migrated to France to save to taxes and fuel);
– UKs financial system works within the EU network;
– UK citizens travel freely as tourists and migrants themselves (with the export of jobs to Asia that is, of course “not happenning” in the production sector of UK);
– What will be left in terms of financial linkages will be the Russians, Indians and Chinese (and THAT will sit well with the right wing voters – more parts of London to speak Russian ;p) or maybe the Arabas will buy more sections of City?;
– Migrants will return to being from one area – previous colonies (that will make the old boys in Parliament feel good, nostalgic, able to understand again the demographics of their country);
– I also wonder who will do the nasty jobs that EU migrants currently do? The lazy unemployed yobos and their 300kg “women” from outskirts of Brummy, Manchester, Glasgow or Bradford?
So, we might expect that, at the end, economic rationalities will prevail, although the result will be close – 46-54 or similar.
I am leaning more in the direction of Bremail – political blackmail by UK, with the UK using its exit potential to win what it needs in the short political cycle of the next elections:
– Restricting immigration from all areas (good idea – Italy’s current problems are a good example of bad solutions, whereas Australia solved the problem);
– Gaining more support in controlling migration across the continent (very good idea – look at the nightmare at Calais);
– Kicking out migrants who have not found a job in 6 months after arrival (logical – why would they consume resources from an economy to which they do not belong nor to which did they never contributed);
– Preventing the transfer of funds to dependents of migrants that are not in the UK (although here, UK retirees should be worried, as in the future even their retirement funds might not be allowed to be sent abroad, as an economy-saving measure, so no more life in Spain or Italy);
– Saving millions in UK contributions to a failing EU, and thus having more funds left for important projects (like giving Brummy yobos coupla hundrd quid for booze and fags);
The coolest and most impressive would be aggressive Brebotage – the UK using its strong position to sabotage the current Union. What could the UKs aims be?
– Scaring the Brussels bureaucracy out of its communist megalomania;
– Curtailing the legal and document creativity of the Brussels bureaucrats (Ministry of Silly Walks, A.D.2015);
– Reducing the control of Brussels over individual members (federalism);
– Returning control in important areas to individual governments (federalism again), when the EU is unable to provide effective leadership;
– Cleaning the Euro zone of stupid countries that drink wine and wait for tourists all day;
– Creating a migration policy that works (controls, logic, selection, integration, cooperation);
– Enhancing the EU security system (common defence finally? joint research and expenditures on EU products);
– Diversifying the energy networks;
– Adding political control over Brussels “thinkers”;
Of course, while internally, the UK conflict is about electoral politics with the far right ideologies gaining momentum, the overall image is one where Bismarckian Realpolitik is being brought back to the game of INTERNAL EU politics. What Putin did from the outside, fooling Brussels and making it look stupid, the UK is not doing from the inside.
The interesting question will be – IF Brexit succeeds, are its promoters ready for the consequences? The Chinese have an ancient curse: beware what you wish for.